Imagine if there was a place where you could make predictions on real-world events and get paid in crypto for being right. Enter Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market.
What is Polymarket
Introducing Polymarket, where you can speculate on outcomes of real-world events and earn from your predictions. This decentralized betting platform aggregates public opinion to establish the odds, and allows you to bet your crypto, putting your money where your mouth is. Prediction markets are an ancient concept stretching back to the 1500s and have become a valuable tool for understanding perspectives on the potential outcomes of current events. Polymarket launched in 2020 and lets you speculate on the outcomes of elections, sports, and current events. And if you are correct, earn some crypto in the process. A question is presented that has a simple yes or no outcome that can be externally verified. Market participants bet their crypto for or against the outcome and can gain financially from predicting the future, or perhaps lose. Today we are going to look at how to make a prediction on Polymarket. Follow the steps outlined below to make your first prediction.
What you need
First things first, you are going to need a non-custodial wallet, such as MetaMask, and it needs to be connected to the Polygon Network. You are also going to need some funds in your wallet in the form of USDC, which you can buy here. If you have already completed these steps, you are ready to make some predictions!
1. Go to Polymarket
2. Sign up and connect your MetaMask wallet.
You can use an email address, and Polymarket will create a wallet for you, but for today’s tutorial, we are using MetaMask, the most popular browser extension wallet.
3. Sign signature request in your MetaMask wallet
4. Now it’s time to find an outcome you want to speculate on.
5. Speculate on when Ethereum merge to Proof-of-Stake.
We are going to speculate on when Ethereum will merge to Proof-of-Stake. But you can choose any question you have a strong opinion on.
6. Purchase your desired number of ‘Outcome Shares’
Outcome Shares are priced between $0.01 and $1 with the prices reflecting the probability of the expected outcome. In this scenario for the Ethereum Merge occurring by September 1st 2022 the outcome share is valued at $0.12 meaning the majority of people think that the Ethereum merge will not happen by September 1st 2022. It is worth mentioning you can sell your outcome shares before the resolution at any time you want.
8. Congratulations you’ve made your decentralized prediction!
9. Wait for the outcome
If you are correct in your outcome, your outcome shares can be cashed out at a value of $1 per share. In this scenario a $100 wager would net $716, with $616 in profit. If you are incorrect your Outcome Shares are worth nothing. Polymarket is a great place to speculate on the outcomes of current events and allows you to potentially generate some crypto if you can make consistent accurate predictions. Now instead of just talking about your opinion on events you can bet on them with crypto.